Lucas: UNC Basketball Mailbag March 14
March 14, 2006 By Adam Lucas A quick note before we get started: the second annual Reece Holbrook Golf Classic is rapidly filling up. You can learn more about how you can help kids impacted by pediatric cancer while also hanging out with numerous Tar Heel basketball luminaries by clicking here. Even if you can't be in Chapel Hill on April 30 for the auction and May 1 for golf, there are still lots of ways to help, from sending in a donation to bidding over the phone for the auction. Fans who went last year will remember that the 2005 auction contained numerous one-of-a-kind team-signed items from the 2005 national champions. A great group of similar items has already been assembled. Check out the official RHGC website for more information and constant updates. Now, a word of caution: this week's Mailbag was written immediately after watching the NCAA Tournament selection show, which begins with CBS's Greg Gumbel saying, "The new pod system was created in an attempt to keep more teams closer to home." So you might detect a hint of grouchiness. How does Tennessee who lost 3 of their last 5 get to Greensboro? I bet the city is so upset like the many Tar Heel fans who have tickets. Greensboro could have made so much money from Carolina and Duke being there like Charlotte last year. I am happy with the seeding as a three, but how are they a two, or GW an 8, or State down to a 10? Were they drawing seeds out of a hat this year? This feels like 1990 all over again. Dayton will be full of Ohio State fans if not Michigan State fans. The Mailbag was overflowing with seeding emails Sunday evening. Because of the volume of questions, it was only fair to address the topic. This will be the first and last time you'll see this subject broached on this website. The bottom line is that Carolina gets to continue a dream season and they'll have the chance to play their way out of any perceived seeding or location snubs. That's the great thing about college basketball--when the computer or committee messes up, teams have a chance to overcome it. In college football when the computer or committee messes up, some deserving team spends their holidays at the Poulan Weed Eater Independence Bowl. Let's pretend for a moment that we all accept that Tennessee deserved a two seed and Carolina a three. Although the Vols did have a dramatic late-season slide while the Tar Heels were on fire, Tennessee retained a great RPI rating (6) thanks to a solid strength of schedule. If we accept the seeding, that leaves location. Here's where things are a little confusing. Check out the official NCAA seeding guidelines. Several points are relevant here: Teams will remain in or as close to their areas of natural interest as possible. The committee will examine the previous five tournament brackets to determine the number of times a particular team or conference has been moved out of its natural region. The committee shall attempt to avoid moving a team or conference out of its natural region or geographic area an inordinate number of times. After the committee has placed the top four teams in each region, the committee will assign those teams (and, therefore, all teams in their bracketing sequence--e.g., seeds 1, 8, 9, 16) to first-/second-round sites. The committee will attempt to assign each to the most geographically compatible first-/second-round site, proceeding in order of the seed list. When multiple teams are a similar distance from a site, generally the team with the higher seed-list ranking will be assigned to the site. Let's look at the easiest one first. In the last five years, Carolina's subregional placements have been Charlotte (150 miles), Denver (1,656 miles), and New Orleans (850 miles). Twice they've been sent packing, once they stayed close to home. That's probably not an "inordinate" number of long trips but it's also not indicative of a team that is getting great placements. We're assuming that somewhere in the vast mound of data we always hear about that's available to the selection committee, there's a computer with access to Mapquest and a Rand McNally road atlas. For that reason, the following stats should be readily available to them: Knoxville-to-Greensboro: 286 miles Keep in mind that the Knoxville-to-Greensboro drive would be across the mountains, which means it wouldn't be entirely surprising that the trip to Dayton could actually be shorter. Looking at the pod as a whole, which the committee does, they almost certainly saw they'd placed Carolina into a pod with a potential home-court disadvantage in the first round against a team from a neighboring state and a potential huge home-court disadvantage in the second round against a team just 262 miles from the site playing in their natural region. Fans at last year's Final Four remember the Big Ten loyalty shown by Illinois and Michigan State fans--you'll see the same thing if Carolina happens to meet the Spartans in Big Ten-heavy Dayton with Ohio State also at the same location. Also, consider this from the official seeding guidelines: If possible, rematches of previous years' tournament games should be avoided in the first and second rounds. So if the Heels are lucky enough to advance, they could conceivably have a home court disadvantage against a lower seeded team in a rematch of a tournament game from last year, which goes against two of the guidelines in order to fulfill one guideline--that Tennessee should get the "preferential" placement in Greensboro. The committee is made up of smart people. Nothing in the paragraphs above is new to them. Why, then, wouldn't they just flip-flop the pod locations of Tennessee and Carolina? Preference is supposed to be given to higher seeds at all times. What compelling reason could there be to assign locations that seem to have no apparent benefits to any of the higher seeds but plenty of negatives for the higher seeds? Well, what's higher than a 2 seed or a 3 seed? A 1 seed. Consider this statement from the official seeding procedures page: 16. To ensure equitable competitive opportunities, the committee shall not place teams seeded on the first five lines at a potential "home-crowd disadvantage" in the first round. Would putting Carolina in Greensboro have created a "home-crowd disadvantage" for a team seeded higher than the Tar Heels that also happened to be in Greensboro? Did you go to the games last year in Charlotte? "It's funny, we come here for practice and people boo us," J.J. Redick said after last year's Charlotte practice sessions for Duke and Carolina. "In this state, there's a majority of NC State and North Carolina fans more than Duke fans." Redick, in addition to being a terrific basketball player, is an astute observer. Maybe the selection committee is equally observant. Could Reyshawn Terry or David Noel see the next level? Noel has the body for it. Every NBA franchise should love to have a guy who can run the floor, rebound, and score inside and out(Noel). Does Noel remind you of George Lynch with a bigger body and a better jump shot. This guy just finds the ball! Reyshawn Terry will see the next level, and two people deserve a huge amount of credit for that--Terry himself and Roy Williams. The Carolina head coach recently said he's probably pushed Terry harder than any other Tar Heel in the past three years. He's pushed him in numerous ways: some you've probably seen (pointed lessons on the sideline during games) and some you haven't (occasionally elevating him to the white team in practice--even when he wasn't likely to play much in the next game--as a sophomore as a reward for quality play in practice). From the moment Terry arrived in Chapel Hill, there's never been any question about whether he had the physical talent to be an impact Atlantic Coast Conference player. He just needed to develop the mental approach to the game to go with the raw skills. While he'll still occasionally make a head-shaking move--the too-quick shot at the end of the Duke game in Cameron or picking up his fourth foul against Boston College on a reckless dash to the basket--but those instances are decreasing as the season progresses. "Before I say something to him, he knows what I'm going to say," Williams says. "When you recognize it that quickly it's just another step before you get to the point that you recognize it before you commit the mistake. In every area of the game, he's working harder and concentrating more." Williams and Terry, perhaps one of the most unlikely duos on the team, have also developed an almost paternal relationship. The head coach isn't opposed to chirping at the player. But he's not likely to allow anyone else to do it. After the win over Virginia on Friday, Terry was one of two players (Wes Miller was the other) selected to accompany Williams to the media room to answer postgame questions. One writer began a question to Terry this way: "Coach said a few days ago that when he got here he wasn't sure if you were good enough..." Williams's eyebrows immediately shot up. Before Terry could respond, Williams barked, "Now wait a minute. You need to finish that quote. I said when I got here I didn't know if he was good enough but now I am sure that he is." The writer tried to interrupt the coach, presumably to clarify. Williams responded: "Wait a second. I'm the coach." Then he let Terry, who had watched the exchange with a bemused smile (Miller's eyes went wide as he saw the press corps get a glimpse of what the Tar Heels see in practice) answer the question. It was a nice example of how close this team, from the head coach on down the bench, has become. One of the reasons for that closeness is the leadership of Noel. But that doesn't automatically mean he'll hear his name on draft night. At 6-foot-6, he's a tough size for an NBA power forward, which means he'll probably have to play on the wing. His perimeter shooting has been much more reliable this season, which is a plus, as is his ability to guard a variety of players. He's also likely to be the beneficiary of a concerted push from Williams, who has raved about Noel over the past month ("I've bragged on him more than I bragged on Jackie, and that's hard to believe," Williams said recently). It wouldn't be entirely disastrous if Noel isn't drafted at all. That would give him the chance to peruse NBA rosters, identify a team with a need for a role player with his specific skill set, and try to make it as a free agent. He's spent most of his basketball career proving himself to skeptical observers. It wouldn't be surprising to see him do it again in the NBA. When was the last time both UNC's men's and women's basketball teams both won games at Cameron in the same year? Maybe you knew the answer to this when you sent the question, Will. But looking it up was a sharp reminder of the unusual coincidences that happen in sports. You might remember that last year we listed the similarities between the 1993 team and 2005 team well before the Tar Heels cut down the nets in St. Louis. This season, with the success of Sylvia Hatchell's squad, a couple folks have pointed out that the women won the title the year after the '93 squad and suggested maybe something similar could be in the offing in 2006. There are certainly some similarities--the 1994 team was led by a lightning-quick point guard (Marion Jones); so is the 2006 team (Ivory Latta). The 1994 team had an underrated wing player who could bang inside or shoot from the perimeter (Tonya Sampson); so does the 2006 team (Camille Little). The 1994 team had a player with a relative who'd been a major impact player in the ACC in men's basketball (Charlotte Smith's uncle is David Thompson); so does the 2006 team (freshman Martina Wood's father is Al Wood). The 1994 team avenged their only losses of the regular season by double figures in the ACC championship game (they'd lost twice to Virginia during the regular season but whipped the Cavaliers 77-60 in the league final); so did the 2006 team (the Tar Heels lost only to Maryland but defeated the Terps 91-80 in the league final). So you've probably guessed where we're going with this. Both the men's and women's teams won in Cameron Indoor Stadium this season. The last time that happened was 1994. What year was Dudley Bradley the MVP of the tournament and on
the cover of Sports Illustrated? What is Dudley doing now? Bradley was the MVP in 1979. He was on the cover of the March 12, 1979 issue of Sports Illustrated. As a Tar Heel, Bradley was perhaps most famous for his exceptional defense. It's probably no surprise, then, that he has found a career in law enforcement. He Maryland Transportation Authority police. I read on the Sports Illustrated web site that Tyler Hansbrough is contemplating going pro after this season. What a colossal mistake that would be! Yes, he is a good college player but he is not a center by NBA standards and needs to work on his ballhandling skills, plus an inside-outside game. At 6'-9" tall, he is a power forward but still lacks the skills necessary to make it in the NBA right now. Hustle and determination takes a player only so far. What do you think? Really? He said that to Sports Illustrated? That's odd because I think I've been at every press conference he's given this year and every postgame locker room, and I've never heard him say anything like that at all. There's a difference between Hansbrough "contemplating" it and people "speculating" that he might consider it. Right now, we're at the speculation stage. This question finally came in enough times that it had to be addressed. In the midst of one of Carolina's most satisfying seasons ever, there is a segment of the Tar Heel fan base that can't resist the urge to think about next year. Will he leave? Who knows? Roy Williams didn't even know prior to last year's Final Four that Sean May might leave. If Williams doesn't know, you can bet Sports Illustrated has no idea. For that reason, can we just relax and enjoy a phenomenal freshman campaign (which just resulted in a freshman All-America selection by The Sporting News, which means Hansbrough's jersey will hang in the rafters)? When you're out on the playground on a sunny day pushing your two-year-old on the swings, do you stop to think about what he's going to wear to the prom? No, you just enjoy the moment. Now, can someone tell me how to get down from this soapbox? Here's the thing: as much as I'd like them to pack up the entire operation and move it to Siberia, the NBA isn't going away. Players who have good seasons, especially players who stand over 6-foot-8, are always going to hear speculation about their professional futures. Hansbrough will be a pro one day. What day, exactly, will that be? Even he doesn't know the answer to that. Just keep in mind that where he would be drafted has absolutely nothing to do with his current skill set. The draft is based on potential. And it's something Carolina basketball will have to worry about forever, not just with Hansbrough, unless you're content for the Heels to stop recruiting the nation's best players. While I'm ranting, can someone please explain the obsession with Hansbrough's age? Yes, he is 20 years old. Is this the 21-and-under league? He has a late birthday and was held back one year in elementary school, something that's very common. Has the extra year somehow turned him into a phenomenal basketball player? No, hard work and talent have done that. The Mailbag staff heard a TV commentator (which makes you wonder where he heard it, since it's highly unlikely he was perusing the team bios in the media guide) say over the weekend that because of Hansbrough's age, he was a "more experienced" player. Huh? What kind of experience? An extra year of snack breaks and swish (if they even still have that) in elementary school? Do other players not get to be 20 years old? That extra year on the playgrounds of Poplar Bluff sure has honed many an NBA superstar. Hansbrough scored 40 points against Georgia Tech's Ra'Sean Dickey, who turns 21 six months before Hansbrough. If age is so important, why didn't those extra six months of experience enable Dickey to stop Hansbrough? By the way, Duke's Eric Boateng is only 17 days younger than Hansbrough. His wealth of experience has enabled him to play a grand total of 48 minutes this season, get 12 rebounds, and score 14 points. Imagine how productive he'd be if he had only been born 17 days earlier. Brownlow's Down Low What is the best Tar Heel road team we've ever had? How far did our 3 best road teams finish in the ACC and NCAA tournaments?
Did any ever win a National Championship? Lauren writes: Ronnie, it's funny you asked that, because the undefeated 1957 national champions are the best road team in Carolina's history. While that may seem like a given, since they were undefeated, what most don't know about that season is that the Heels played only eight games at home that year in addition to 16 games that were considered "neutral", despite the fact that they faced both Michigan State and Kansas in the Final Four that was played in the oh-so-neutral Kansas City. Now, since only eight of those wins away from Chapel Hill were considered "away", the team with the most away wins was the 1987 team. They went 11-2 away from the Smith Center and were 8-2 at neutral sites while maintaining a perfect 13-0 record at home. That team finished the ACC regular season champions and lost in the ACC championship game to NC State. They made it to the Elite Eight in the NCAA Tournament before being knocked out by Syracuse. Very few Carolina teams have lost more games on the road than at home, and when they did, it was at a time when so few games were played at home or away (mostly neutral sites) that it hardly seems significant. But the 1960 Tar Heels went 5-1 at home and 4-0 on the road on their way to a first place ACC regular-season finish and a loss in the second round of the ACC Tournament to Duke. The 1973 team went 5-2 on the road and 6-3 at home on their way to a 2nd place regular-season ACC finish, a loss to Wake Forest in the first round of the ACC Tournament and a 2nd place NIT finish. The 1976 team went 2-0 on the road and was 8-1 at home and probably has the most eerily similar season to this year's team in terms of when they got hot - they lost to NC State on January 18 and would not lose again until the second round of the ACC Tournament against Virginia. They proceeded to lose in the first round of the NCAA tournament to Alabama. One team - 1984 - tied and went 9-0 at both home and away. They were 10-3 on neutral sites, though, and one of those neutral site losses was to Duke in the ACC semifinal game; the other was to Indiana in the second round of the NCAA. (By the way, all of those losses were by a combined 7 points.) The 1991 team finished second in the ACC regular season and won the ACC tournament. They went 11-2 at home and 7-2 away, and 11-2 at neutral sites, but again, one of those neutral site losses was in the Final Four against Kansas. The 2000 team went 6-5 on the road and 7-5 at home on their way to a third place ACC regular season finish and a first-round ouster from the ACC tournament. They were 11-4 at neutral sites, but two of those losses came in the ACC tournament and the NCAA tournament in the first round of the Final Four against Florida. "Neutral" wins are interesting - the Heels don't always do so well in those environments, especially considering that neutral sites don't always live up to their billing. (See 1957.) So I decided to include neutral and away games in determining some of the better Tar Heel teams away from the Smith Center. With that in mind, only four teams have ever combined for more than 20 wins both away and on neutral sites, and one of them was the 1957 team (24-0 outside of Woollen Gym). A second is the 1968 team that went 8-1 at home but was 6-2 on the road and was 14-1 on neutral sites, combining for a 20-3 record while not in Chapel Hill. That team was both the ACC regular season and tournament champion and lost in the NCAA championship game to UCLA. Both the 1981 and the 1982 teams won more than 20 games away from Chapel Hill. We already know that the 1982 team won the NCAA championship (plus the regular season and ACC tournament championships), going 9-1 at home and a combined 23-1 away from home. The 1981 team the year before went 22-6 away from home (8-2 away and 14-4 at neutral sites) and 7-2 at home, finishing second in the ACC regular season, winning the ACC tournament championship and losing in the NCAA championship game to Indiana. This year's team is 13-4 at home, 8-2 on the road and 1-1 in the only neutral site they played at, Greensboro. Strangely enough, in those two road losses, both were before crowds of less than 10,000 people (5,921 at USC and 8,392 at Virginia). I say this is strange because they have more losses at home in front of 20,000-plus fans. In fact, of the four games Carolina played in front of fewer than 10,000 fans, they were 3-2 and those three wins were by three points (Virginia Tech), ten points (Miami) and seven points (Duke). So one can only conclude further that what Roy Williams said is true - these kids don't seem to know that they're supposed to be feeling any pressure on the road, and it would seem they'd rather play in front crowd full of opposing fans rather than a sparsely populated arena while on the road. Adam Lucas is the
publisher of Tar Heel Monthly and can be reached at
alucas@tarheelmonthly.com. He is the coauthor of the official book of the 2005 championship season, Led By Their Dreams, and his book on Roy Williams's first season at Carolina, Going Home Again, is now available in bookstores. To subscribe to Tar Heel Monthly or learn more about Going Home Again, click here.
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