Nov. 11, 2005

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The following story originally ran in the November issue of the magazine.

By Adam Lucas

It's a sobering exercise for injecting some reality into expectations for the 2005-06 season.

Take the career highs for every player returning to the roster this season. Exclude the freshmen, since they've never made a basket in Division I hoops. Pore over the stats and add them up--14 for Reyshawn Terry against Coastal Carolina as a freshman, 5 for Quentin Thomas last year against Vermont, 6 for Wes Miller last year against Cleveland State, 21 for David Noel against DePaul as a freshman, and 8 for Byron Sanders against Florida State as a freshman--and you've got a meager 54 points.

Those are career best numbers for the returning core of the team--and it's still 34 points less than Carolina averaged last year while motoring to a national championship.

So while plenty of questions about this year's Tar Heels remain, one of the most pressing is also the most elementary: who is going to put the ball in the hoop?

Noel is the team's most accomplished scorer, but he primarily scored off offensive rebounds and on the fast break last season. The Durham native did evolve into a quality offensive threat by the end of his freshman year on a team likely to be very similar to this year's Tar Heels, notching six double-figure games in the second half of the season, but it wasn't because Carolina was running the offense through him.

Noel spent most of his time that year in the post due to the absence of Sean May. He won't be able to post up centers, and his 6-foot-6 height might leave him a couple inches short against many power forwards, but his quickness and athletic ability can create some matchup problems.

"David has a great deal of flexibility in his game that allows him to play both the `3' and `4' positions," Roy Williams says. "I expect he will do the same again this year."

Where Noel scores may depend on what kind of offensive sets the Tar Heel use. Joe Holladay joked recently that Carolina's best play at the end of last season was simple--"Throw it to May." That play is still a good one, but it'll be the Charlotte Bobcats running it this season instead of the Tar Heels.

The best way for Noel's offensive options to expand would be for Carolina to locate a reliable post scoring threat. Byron Sanders is more comfortable as a defender and rebounder and Michael Copeland is likely to help fill that same role. Damion Grant isn't with the team this year, so that leaves freshman Tyler Hansbrough as the main man in the middle.

In a perfect world, the Poplar Bluff native might be more suited to a power forward position. But that was also the case with May, and he ended his career with his jersey in the rafters. Hansbrough is a 6-foot-9 bruiser who will have to resist the urge to simply bull through defenders. He's already shown a good touch with either hand and seems comfortable shooting out to the foul line, although his initial forays will be more limited in distance. With his physical style of play, he's also certain to spend plenty of time at the free throw line--a good stroke from the charity stripe might be his most effective offensive weapon.

If Hansbrough can establish himself in the post, it opens up the wing for Reyshawn Terry, perhaps the most natural scorer on the roster. The question with Terry has never been whether he can shoot, it's been whether he can learn when to shoot. But the reins have to come off by necessity this season. Mental errors that might have resulted in Terry being yanked in past seasons now may have to occasionally be overlooked.

"I want to be more aggressive, but at the same time I have to be better about my decision making," Terry says. "I want to have a stronger mentality this year."

The Winston-Salem native has added about ten pounds to his wiry frame and might spend a small amount of time in the post, but there's no question that he's more suited for the wing. In the past, contributions from him have been a pleasant bonus. Now they're a necessity.

"Reyshawn will have more pressure on him this year because we are going to expect him to do certain things," Williams says. "He had a chance to get some moments last year. There is ability there for him to step forward. He has the ability to score, he has the ability to get to the offensive boards."

The Tar Heels are better equipped along the perimeter, although they'll miss Raymond Felton's ability to be equally dangerous scoring or passing when pushing the ball up the floor. That's why tempo is so important, and why Bobby Frasor's game against Fayetteville State was so impressive. Frasor appeared to understand the Tar Heels don't just want to run off missed baskets. They want to run even off made baskets. The halfcourt offense may take some time to gel, so picking up some easy points by beating the other team down the floor is an important luxury. Carolina has a variety of interchangeable parts at the guard positions, where they can pair Quentin Thomas or Frasor with anyone from Wes Miller to Marcus Ginyard to Danny Green. But that also presents (another) question: if Hansbrough and Noel prove to be an effective duo in the post, who will be the perimeter threat who keeps defenses from collapsing inside?

Frasor has a reputation as a shooter but it's unusual for Carolina guards to exhibit great perimeter marksmanship as rookies. Terry has the best three-point percentage among the returnees at 60 percent, but he got numerous open looks from the perimeter last year because he was the fourth or fifth offensive option when he was on the floor. He's likely to see those open jumpers turn into contested shots this season.

"I want to elevate my game to a whole new level," Terry says. "Before the summer Coach told me I needed to have the mentality that nobody was going to work harder than me. That's what I've been working on all summer."

The Tar Heels shot 49.9 percent from the field last season, the second-highest team figure in the past decade. It's certain to drop this year as everyone on the roster finds their shooting comfort zone.

Adam Lucas is the publisher of Tar Heel Monthly and can be reached at alucas@tarheelmonthly.com. He is the coauthor of the official book of the 2005 championship season, Led By Their Dreams, and his book on Roy Williams's first season at Carolina, Going Home Again, is now available in paperback with a bonus chapter covering the 2005 championship team. To subscribe to Tar Heel Monthly or learn more about his Carolina basketball books, click here.